Plan Your Stock-to-Bond Shift Over 30 Years
The Asset Allocation Glide Path Calculator maps how your portfolio should transition from growth-oriented to conservative as you approach retirement. A 35-year-old with 80% stocks targeting 40% at retirement (age 65) reduces stocks by 1.33% per year over 30 years — dropping their risk score from 8.0/10 to 4.0/10. Bonds rise from 10% to 50%, absorbing the entire shift while 10% in alternatives stays constant.
The Glide Path Formula
The calculator uses a power curve to model different de-risking speeds:
Stocks at Year t = Current Stocks + (Target - Current) × (t / Years)^exponent
Bonds = 100% - Stocks - Other Assets
Risk Score = (Stocks% / 100) × 10
Annual Stock Change = |Current - Target| / Years to Retirement
Exponent values control the curve shape:
Conservative (Early & Steady): exponent = 0.5 (front-loaded)
Linear (Even Pace): exponent = 1.0 (uniform)
Aggressive (Stay in Stocks): exponent = 2.0 (back-loaded)
Example: Age 35 to 65 Linear Glide Path
35-year-old, 80% stocks, 40% target at retirement, 10% other assets, linear style:
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Avg. Annual Stock Change | -1.33%/year | Even pace — equal adjustment each year |
| Current Risk Score | 8.0/10 | High risk — growth-oriented |
| Target Risk Score | 4.0/10 | Moderate — balanced-conservative |
| Current Allocation | 80/10/10 | Stocks / Bonds / Other |
| Target Allocation | 40/50/10 | Stocks / Bonds / Other |
| Midpoint (Age 50) | 60/30/10 | Exactly halfway between start and target |
| Total Stock Reduction | 40pp | Over 30 years |
| Risk Score Reduction | 4.0 points | From growth to balanced |
The linear path creates a steady 1.33% annual reduction. At the midpoint (age 50), the portfolio is exactly 60% stocks — halfway between the 80% start and 40% target. The conservative path would already be at 51.7% stocks by age 50, while the aggressive path would still be at 70%.
Three Glide Path Styles Compared
All three styles start at 80% stocks and end at 40%, but the path between differs significantly. At the midpoint (age 50, year 15): Conservative reaches 51.7% stocks (already shifted 70% of the way), Linear is at 60.0% (exactly 50% shifted), and Aggressive is at 70.0% (only 25% shifted). Choose conservative if you prioritize sequence-of-returns risk protection, linear for simplicity, or aggressive if you want maximum growth potential before the final decade.
